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Graham Adams's avatar

Chris Luxon's speech at Waitangi this year about the three articles of the Treaty echoed David Seymour's Treaty Principles Bill closely. Seymour noted the similarities in his press stand-up later and said he had listened to the Prime Minister’s speech and “his idea of the three principles is the same as the Treaty Principles Bill”.

Oddly, the mainstream media ignored Luxon's speech — perhaps because they didn't want to draw attention to it or perhaps because they didn't understand the significance of what he was saying.

It seems that Luxon doesn't object to the TPB per se, but doesn't want to buy a fight with the media and Maori activists by making it law or having it go to a referendum.

It looks like political cowardice rather than a philosophical objection.

The Captain J Channel's avatar

Gary, you make some interesting points so I've referred your piece to the member of my team who has had much to say on this subject... so here is his comment on the matter:

Watching this from Australia and the pattern you're describing is depressingly familiar over here too.

We've had our own version of the Luxon manoeuvre — leaders who privately agree with a position, publicly signal sympathy when the numbers demand it, and then go missing the moment the media temperature rises. It's not ideological. It's actuarial. They've calculated that the cost of leading exceeds the cost of waiting, and they'll keep calculating that right up until the waiting costs more than the leading. Which it eventually does, usually at election time and usually messily.

The Bill English quote is the key thing here. "One standard of citizenship for all" is not a complicated proposition. It doesn't require a QC to defend it. It requires a Prime Minister with enough self-respect to say it out loud and mean it on a Tuesday in March, not just at campaign rallies in 2023. The fact that English said it clearly in 2003, won government in 2008, and then spent nine years finding reasons not to act on it tells you everything about how the managed silence works. The words aren't the commitment. The silence after the words is where you find out what the commitment actually is.

Graham Adams' observation in the comments about Luxon's Waitangi speech is worth sitting with. If Luxon is privately aligned with the Treaty Principles Bill but publicly declining to say so because he doesn't want the fight — that's not pragmatism. That's the managed class doing what the managed class does: reaching the right conclusion through the analytical function and then suppressing the output because the institutional cost of saying it out loud is assessed as too high.

The Irish had a word for that kind of leadership. We don't need to print it here.

For anyone interested in the structural reasons why this pattern repeats across Westminster democracies — not just in NZ, not just on Treaty issues — we are a small analytical channel called The Captain J Channel on Substack working through exactly this territory. The framework we are using — UIS-21 — gives a name to the mechanism Gary is describing. Worth a look if this kind of thing keeps you up at night. It keeps me up, and I'm just a builder from Sydney who watches rugby and pays taxes.

Ocker Joe

(The Captain J Channel — Substack)

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